Hannes Mueller

IAE-CSIC and BSE

Hannes Mueller is a tenured researcher at the Institute for Economic Analysis (IAE-CSIC) and an Affiliated Professor at the Barcelona School of Economics (BSE). He is the director of the Data Science for Decision Making Program and head of department at the IAE-CSIC. He is also affiliated with CEPR.

Professor Mueller's fields of interest are Machine Learning, Political Economy, Development Economics and Conflict Studies with a particular focus on the effect of violent conflict on the economy. In his most recent projects Prof. Mueller adopts supervised and unsupervised machine learning techniques to forecast and nowcast violence using large archives of newspaper articles and satellite images.

He has published in leading journals in Economics and Political Science such as the American Economic Review (AER), the American Political Science Review (APSR), the Journal of the European Economic Association (JEEA) and the American Journal of Economics: Macro (AEJ: Macro). 

Professor Mueller is involved in research projects targeting public policy problems. He has contributed reports for the World Bank and International Monetary Fund on fragility and the economic effects of conflict, for a joint UN/World Bank study on conflict prevention and for the UN Economic Commission for Africa on structural change in Northern Africa. He is currently involved in several projects with the Banco de España developing techniques for nowcasting and forecasting economic conditions and political risks with text. He has also conducted capacity building missions for staff in international organizations, private firms and governments.

His work has been covered by Spanish Radio, the Financial Times, the SIPRI blog and Nada Es Gratis and a video by the American Economic Association (AEA). The World Bank President J.Y. Kim cited numbers directly derived from his research in the press release "United Nations and World Bank Leaders Call for Stronger International Efforts to Prevent Violent Conflict."

Awards, Grants, and Honors

Working Papers

Publications

Open Access       Marina Diakonova, Luis Molina, Hannes Mueller, Javier J. Perez and Christopher Rauh

The information content of conflict, social unrest and policy uncertainty measures for macroeconomic forecasting

Latin American Journal of Central Banking, Vol.5, No 4, December 2024, 10.1016/j.latcb.2024.100130
Open Access
Open Access       Hannes Mueller and Christopher Rauh

Building bridges to peace: a quantitative evaluation of power-sharing agreements

Economic Policy, Vol.39, No 118, 411–467, April 2024, 10.1093/epolic/eiae010
Open Access
Sandra García-Uribe, Hannes Mueller and Carlos Sanz

Economic Uncertainty and Divisive Politics: Evidence from the dos Españas

The Journal of Economic History, Vol.81, No 1, 40 - 73, March 2024, 10.1017/S0022050724000044