Hannes Mueller


Hannes Mueller is a tenured researcher at the Institute for Economic Analysis (IAE-CSIC) and an Associate Research Professor at the BSE. He is the director of the Data Science for Decision Making Program and head of department at the IAE-CSIC. He is also affiliated to MOVE and the CEPR.

Prof. Mueller's fields of interest are Machine Learning, Political Economy, Development Economics and Conflict Studies with a particular focus on the effect of violent conflict on the economy. In his most recent projects Prof. Mueller adopts supervised and unsupervised machine learning techniques to forecast and nowcast violence using large archives of newspaper articles and satellite images.

He has published in leading journals in Economics and Political Science such as the American Economic Review (AER), the American Political Science Review (APSR), the Journal of the European Economic Association (JEEA) and the American Journal of Economics: Macro (AEJ: Macro). 

Professor Mueller is involved in research projects targeting public policy problems. He has contributed reports for the World Bank and International Monetary Fund on fragility and the economic effects of conflict, for a joint UN/World Bank study on conflict prevention and for the UN Economic Commission for Africa on structural change in Northern Africa. He is currently involved in several projects with the Banco de España developing techniques for nowcasting and forecasting economic conditions and political risks with text. He has also conducted capacity building missions for staff in international organizations, private firms and governments.

His work has been covered by Spanish Radio, the Financial Times, the SIPRI blog and Nada Es Gratis and a video by the American Economic Association (AEA). The World Bank President J.Y. Kim cited numbers directly derived from his research in the press release "United Nations and World Bank Leaders Call for Stronger International Efforts to Prevent Violent Conflict."

Awards, Grants, and Honors

Working Papers


Sandra García-Uribe, Hannes Mueller and Carlos Sanz

Economic Uncertainty and Divisive Politics: Evidence from the dos Españas

The Journal of Economic History, Vol.81, No 1, 40 - 73, March 2024, 10.1017/S0022050724000044

Recognition Program

Open Access       Hannes Mueller and Christopher Rauh

The Hard Problem of Prediction for Conflict Prevention

Journal of the European Economic Association, Vol.20, No 6, 440–2467, December 2022, 10.1093/jeea/jvac025
Open Access
Hannes Mueller, Andre Groeger, Jonathan Hersh, Andrea Matranga and Joan Serrat

Monitoring war destruction from space using machine learning

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol.118, No 23, e2025400118, June 2021, 10.1073/pnas.2025400118