Reading Between the Lines: Prediction of Political Violence Using Newspaper Text

• Authors: Hannes Mueller.
• BSE Working Paper: 110464 | September 17
• Keywords: conflict , Civil War , forecasting , machine learning , early-warning , topic model , news , prediction , panel regression
• JEL codes: O11, O43
• conflict
• Civil War
• forecasting
• machine learning
• early-warning
• topic model
• news
• prediction
• panel regression

This article provides a new methodology to predict armed conflict by using newspaper text. Through machine learning, vast quantities of newspaper text are reduced to interpretable topics. These topics are then used in panel regressions to predict the onset of conflict. We propose the use of the within-country variation of these topics to predict the timing of conflict. This allows us to avoid the tendency of predicting conflict only in countries where it occurred before. We show that the within-country variation of topics is a good predictor of conflict and becomes particularly useful when risk in previously peaceful countries arises. Two aspects seem to be responsible for these features. Topics provide depth because they consist of changing, long lists of terms which makes them able to capture the changing context of conflict. At the same time topics provide width because they are summaries of the full text, including stabilizing factors.