Hegemonic Globalization

• Authors: Fernando Broner, Alberto Martin, Josefin Meyer and Christoph Trebesch
• BSE Working Paper: 1504 | September 2025
• Keywords: cooperation, globalization, hegemon, international treaties, international coercion, multipolar world, trade integration
• JEL codes: F02, F15, F50, F51, F55, F60, P45

How do shifts in the global balance of power shape globalization? We develop a theory of alignment-based “hegemonic globalization,” built on two premises: countries differ in their preferred policies, and trade increases with policy alignment. Because access to large markets is especially valuable, hegemons foster policy alignment and thereby global economic integration. A unipolar world dominated by a sufficiently large hegemon tends to support globalization, while the emergence of a competing hegemon with different policy preferences can trigger fragmentation. Such frag- mentation lowers global welfare and is most costly for the incumbent hegemon and its closest allies. To evaluate the theory’s key mechanisms, we create the Global Treaty Database, covering the near-universe of international agreements signed be- tween 1800 and 2020. Treaties formally codify policy alignment, and two-thirds of them concern economic integration. As predicted by the model, countries shift their alignment towards powerful hegemons, alignment strongly predicts bilateral trade, and countries aligned with the same hegemon also trade more with one another.