Hegemonic Globalization

• Authors: Christoph Trebesch, Josefin Meyer, Alberto Martin and Fernando Broner.
• BSE Working Paper: 1504 | September 25
• Keywords: cooperation , globalization , hegemon , international treaties , international coercion , multipolar world , trade integration
• JEL codes: F02, F15, F50, F51, F55, F60, P45

How does the global balance of power shape the world economy? We propose a theory of “hegemonic globalization” built on two premises: countries have hetero- geneous policy preferences, and trade expands with policy alignment. Hegemons foster alignment, enabling globalization, while a shift to multipolarity risks frag-mentation, at the expense of the declining hegemon and its allies. Empirically, we use international treaties as a proxy of alignment and construct the Global Treaty Database, covering 77,000 agreements from 1800–2020. The evidence supports the key elements of our theory: hegemons spur treaty-making, and treaties are a leading indicator of bilateral trade