Forecasting Forced Displacement Flows Using Machine

• Authors: Laura Mayoral, Hannes Mueller, Christopher Rauh, Ben Seimon and Ramón Talvi Robledo
• BSE Working Paper: 1573 | April 2026
• Keywords: forecasting, machine learning, Google trends, forced displacement, early warning, dyadic, conformal prediction

Forced displacement is an important policy challenge, yet forecasting is hindered by sparse, annually observed flow data and reporting delays. This article proposes a forecasting method for country outflows and dyadic flows tailored to this sparse data setting. We combine slow-moving structural predictors with high-frequency text-based signals, compress high-dimensional news into low-dimensional topic representations via Latent Dirichlet Allocation to mitigate overfitting, and estimate a stacked ensemble of gradient-boosted trees that captures non-linear origin–destination interactions while making optimal use of the available data. We further apply conformal prediction to construct statistically valid prediction intervals for bilateral flows. Analyzing the text component yields that destination-specific search intensity of migration terms is a central predictor of subsequent dyadic displacement flows.