Foreign Influence and Identity Equilibria: A Model of External Intervention and Social Alignment

• Authors: Esther Hauk.
• BSE Working Paper: 1523 | October 25
• Keywords: foreign intervention , social identity , intergroup conflict , group status , ethnic salience , external conditional aid
• JEL codes: D74, F35, F50

This paper develops a formal model to analyze how foreign interventions – via resource transfers towards mobilization, technological upgrades of the mobilization technology, and various forms of conditional aid – reshape identity choices and conflict dynamics in divided societies. By endogenizing identity selection between ethnic and national affiliations, we show that the design of external influence critically determines whether interventions escalate or mitigate identity- based conflict. Our results reveal that inclusive aid, as well as the provision of material resources for mobilization foster civic alignment and reduce mobilization, while exclusive or ethnically targeted aid and technological upgrades of the mobilization technology entrenches polarization. The model offers actionable insights for designing foreign policy and peacebuilding strategies that promote national cohesion and reduce the risk of identity-driven instability.