A fractional model for the COVID-19 pandemic: Application to Italian data

Authors: Elisa Alòs, Maria Elvira Mancini, Raúl Merino and Simona Sanfelici

Stochastic Analysis and Applications, Vol. 39, September, 2021

We provide a probabilistic SIRD model for the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy, where we allow the infection, recovery and death rates to be random. In particular, the underlying random factor is driven by a fractional Brownian motion. Our model is simple and needs only some few parameters to be calibrated.