Climate change and migration: the case of Africa

• Authors: Bruno Conte
• BSE Working Paper: 1411 | October 23
• Keywords: migration , climate change , economic geography
• JEL codes: O15, Q54, R12

How will future climate change affect Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) in terms of migration and welfare? Can policymakers help SSA adapt to this process? I answer these questions with a quantitative framework that, coupled with rich spatial data and forecasts for the future climate, projects millions of climate migrants and unequal welfare losses across SSA. Investigating migration and trade liberalization as policy tools, I find persistent inequality in welfare losses if only migration barriers in SSA are reduced. Relaxing trade barriers addresses these distributional concerns, as do both policies combined. Yet, the policy mix is less effective in reducing aggregate losses due to inefficiencies arising from congestion externalities.