Has the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership Affected Mediterranean Business Cycles?

• Authors: Alain Schlaepfer and Fabio Canova.
• BSE Working Paper: 548 | September 15
• Keywords: Turning point dates , Reference cycle , Euro Mediterranean partnership , trade interdependences
• JEL codes: E32, C32
• Turning point dates
• Reference cycle
• Euro Mediterranean partnership
• trade interdependences

We date turning points of the reference cycle for 19 countries in the Mediterranean, for selected regions, and for the area. Cycles phases are asymmetric, with expansions lasting, on average, much longer than recessions. Cyclical fluctuations are volatile and not highly correlated across countries. Recessions are not very deep and output losses limited. Heterogeneities across countries and regions are substantial. There are time variations in features of Mediterranean business cycles not clearly linked with the Euro-Mediterranean partnership process. The concordance of cyclical fluctuations in the region is poorly linked to trade as is its evolution over time.